USA Weather — Severe Weather Division
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD STILL ADVECT MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, SOME BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH 50-65KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LONG, CURVED HODOGRAPHS RESUTLING IN STRONG HELICITY, A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A QLCS PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.