USA Weather — Severe Weather Division
This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.
...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE MID SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH.
...GULF COAST...
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-WEST EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AN ONGOING HIGHLY FORCED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A NARROW/WEAK WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID-MORNING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT AND LONG, CURVED HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SOMEWHAT MITIGATE THE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY, THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS.
...MID-SOUTH...
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO 500 MUCAPE. ISOLATED STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOOSE ORGANIZATION, WITH AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.