Tornado Advisory #1538

USA Weather — Severe Weather Division

This PWA expired and is no longer valid.

Issued
Oct 30 at 6:47 PM CDT
Expired
1 week ago
Forecasters
Lucas Clover
States Included
Kansas and Missouri
Counties Included
Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Coffey, Crawford, Doniphan, Douglas, Elk, Franklin, Greenwood, Jefferson, Johnson, Labette, Leavenworth, Linn, Lyon, Miami, Montgomery, Neosho, Osage, Shawnee, Wilson, Woodson, Wyandotte, Adair, Andrew, Barton, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Cedar, Chariton, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Dekalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Henry, Jackson, Jasper, Lafayette, Livingston, Mercer, Newton, Nodaway, Pettis, Platte, Putnam, Ray, Saint Clair, Saline, Schuyler, St. Clair, Sullivan, Vernon, and Worth
Cities Included
Bassett, Carlyle, Elsmore, Gas, Humboldt, Iola, La Harpe, Mildred, Moran, Petrolia, Savonburg, Bush City, Centerville, Colony, Garnett, Greeley, Harris, Kincaid, Lone Elm, Mont Ida, Selma, Westphalia, Atchison, Cummings, Farmington, Potter, Bronson, Devon, Fort Scott, Fulton, Garland, Hammond, Harding, Hiattville, Mapleton, Pawnee Station, Redfield, Uniontown, Xenia, Powhattan, Cedar Vale, Chautauqua, Hewins, Niotaze, Peru, Sedan, Baxter Springs, Columbus, Crestline, Faulkner, Galena, Lawton, Lowell, Melrose, Neutral, Riverton, Roseland, Scammon, Sherman, Sherwin, Stippville, Treece, Weir, West Mineral, Agricola, Aliceville, Burlington, Gridley, Halls Summit, Le Roy, Lebo, LeRoy, Neosho Falls, New Strawn, Ottumwa, Waverly, Arcadia, Arma, Beulah, Brazilton, Cherokee, Chicopee, Englevale, Farlington, Franklin, Frontenac, Girard, Hepler, Mc Cune, McCune, Mulberry, Opolis, Pittsburg, Walnut, Yale, Bendena, Denton, Doniphan, Elwood, Troy, Wathena, Baldwin City, Big Springs, Clinton, Eudora, Lawrence, Lone Star, Pleasant Grove, Stull, Vinland, Elk Falls, Grenola, Howard, Longton, Moline, Oak Valley, Centropolis, Homewood, Lane, Le Loup, Ottawa, Peoria, Pomona, Princeton, Rantoul, Richmond, Wellsville, Williamsburg, Climax, Eureka, Fall River, Hamilton, Lamont, Madison, Neal, Piedmont, Quincy, Severy, Virgil, Grantville, McLouth, Meriden, Nortonville, Oskaloosa, Ozawkie, Perry, Rock Creek, Valley Falls, Williamstown, Winchester, Clare, Clearview City, De Soto, Edgerton, Fairway, Gardner, Kenneth, Lackmans, Lake Quivira, Leawood, Lenexa, Merriam, Mission, Mission Hills, Mission Woods, New Century, Olathe, Overland Park, Prairie Village, Roeland Park, Shawnee, Shawnee Mission, Spring Hill, Stanley, Stilwell, Westwood, Westwood Hills, Altamont, Angola, Bartlett, Chetopa, Dennis, Edna, Labette, Montana, Mound Valley, Oswego, Parsons, Basehor, Easton, Fairmount, Fort Leavenworth, Lansing, Leavenworth, Linwood, Lowemont, Reno, Tonganoxie, Blue Mound, Boicourt, Goodrich, La Cygne, Linn Valley, Mound City, Parker, Pleasanton, Prescott, Hartford, Miller, Neosho Rapids, Reading, Beagle, Bucyrus, Chiles, Fontana, Hillsdale, Jingo, Louisburg, New Lancaster, Osawatomie, Paola, Wagstaff, Caney, Cherryvale, Coffeyville, Dearing, Elk City, Havana, Independence, Jefferson, Liberty, Sycamore, Tyro, Wayside, Chanute, Earlton, Erie, Galesburg, Kimball, Morehead, Saint Paul, Shaw, South Mound, Stark, Thayer, Urbana, Barclay, Burlingame, Carbondale, Lyndon, Melvern, Olivet, Osage City, Overbrook, Quenemo, Scranton, Vassar, Berryton, Lecompton, Pauline, Richland, Tecumseh, Topeka, Wakarusa, Altoona, Benedict, Buffalo, Buxton, Coyville, Fredonia, Lafontaine, Neodesha, New Albany, Roper, Vilas, Piqua, Toronto, Vernon, Yates Center, Bonner Springs, Edwardsville, Kansas City, Piper, Pomeroy, Wolcott, Novinger, Amazonia, Bolckow, Cosby, Country Club Village, Fillmore, Helena, Rea, Rosendale, Savannah, Asbury, Burgess, Golden City, Irwin, Lamar, Lamar Heights, Liberal, Milford, Mindenmines, Nashville, Adrian, Amoret, Amsterdam, Ballard, Butler, Drexel, Foster, Hume, Merwin, Passaic, Rich Hill, Rockville, Worland, Agency, De Kalb, Faucett, Lewis and Clark Village, Rushville, Saint Joseph, Braymer, Breckenridge, Cowgill, Kidder, Kingston, Polo, Bogard, Bosworth, Carrollton, De Witt, Hale, Norborne, Stet, Tina, Archie, Baldwin Park, Belton, Cleveland, East Lynne, Freeman, Garden City, Gunn City, Harrisonville, Lake Annette, Lake Winnebago, Loch Lloyd, Peculiar, Pleasant Hill, Raymore, Riverview Estates, Strasburg, West Line, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs, Jerico Springs, Brunswick, Mendon, Rothville, Sumner, Triplett, Avondale, Birmingham, Claycomo, Excelsior Springs, Gladstone, Glenaire, Holt, Kearney, Missouri City, Mosby, North Kansas City, Oaks, Oakview, Oakwood, Oakwood Manor, Oakwood Park, Pleasant Valley, Prathersville, Randolph, Smithville, Cameron, Gower, Grayson, Lathrop, Plattsburg, Trimble, Turney, Coffey, Gallatin, Jameson, Jamesport, Lock Springs, Pattonsburg, Winston, Amity, Clarksdale, Fairport, Maysville, Osborn, Stewartsville, Union Star, Weatherby, Albany, Darlington, Ford City, Gentry, King City, Mc Fall, McFall, Stanberry, Brimson, Edinburg, Galt, Laredo, Spickard, Tindall, Trenton, Bethany, Blythedale, Cainsville, Eagleville, Gilman City, Hatfield, Martinsville, Mount Moriah, New Hampton, Ridgeway, Blairstown, Brownington, Calhoun, Coal, Creighton, Deepwater, Hartwell, La Due, Montrose, Urich, Windsor, Blue Springs, Buckner, Courtney, Grain Valley, Grandview, Greenwood, Lake Lotawana, Lake Tapawingo, Lees Summit, Levasy, Lone Jack, Oak Grove, Raytown, River Bend, Sibley, Sugar Creek, Unity Village, Airport Drive, Alba, Atlas, Avilla, Brooklyn Heights, Carl Junction, Carterville, Carthage, Carytown, Duenweg, Duquesne, Fidelity, Iron Gates, Jasper, Joplin, Neck City, Oakland Park, Oronogo, Purcell, Waco, Webb City, Centerview, Chilhowee, Fayetteville, Holden, Kingsville, Knob Noster, Latour, Leeton, Pittsville, Post Oak, Quick City, Warrensburg, Whiteman Air Force Base, Alma, Aullville, Bates City, Concordia, Corder, Dover, Emma, Higginsville, Lake Lafayette, Lexington, Mayview, Napoleon, Odessa, Wellington, Brookfield, Browning, Bucklin, Laclede, Linneus, Marceline, Meadville, New Boston, Purdin, Avalon, Chillicothe, Chula, Dawn, Ludlow, Mooresville, Utica, Wheeling, Mercer, Mill Grove, Ravanna, Cliff Village, Dennis Acres, Grand Falls Plaza, Redings Mill, Saginaw, Shoal Creek Drive, Shoal Creek Estates, Silver Creek, Clyde, Conception, Conception Junction, Guilford, Ravenwood, Green Ridge, Houstonia, La Monte, Beverly, Camden Point, Dearborn, East Leavenworth, Farley, Ferrelview, Hoover, Houston Lake, Iatan, Lake Waukomis, Northmoor, Parkville, Platte City, Platte Woods, Ridgely, Riverside, Stillings, Tracy, Waldron, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Livonia, Lucerne, Powersville, Unionville, Worthington, Camden, Crystal Lakes, Elmira, Excelsior Estates, Fleming, Hardin, Henrietta, Homestead, Knoxville, Lawson, Orrick, Rayville, Vibbard, Wood Heights, Appleton City, Lowry City, Roscoe, Blackburn, Grand Pass, Malta Bend, Marshall, Miami, Mount Leonard, Sweet Springs, Coatsville, Glenwood, Lancaster, Queen City, Taberville, Tiffin, Green Castle, Green City, Humphreys, Milan, Newtown, Osgood, Pollock, Winigan, Bronaugh, Deerfield, Harwood, Horton, Metz, Milo, Montevallo, Moundville, Nevada, Richards, Schell City, Sheldon, Stotesbury, Walker, Allendale, Denver, Grant City, Sheridan, and Worth
People Affected
16,236,824
LFOs Affected
STL, OKC,
Max Hail Size
1.5 in
Wind Gusts
75 mph

...SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...

...DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MERGING INTO A QLCS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG PRESENT, ALONG WITH UP TO 7 DEG C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION, POCKETS OF 250 TO OVER 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY WILL FAVOR THE STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF SEVERAL TORNADOES, ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO AROUND 75 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. AFTER THE STORMS FULLY MERGE INTO THE QLCS, SPIN UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AS WELL.



...HAZARDS...
...PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES...60%...
...PROBABILITY OF INTENSE TORNADOES (EF-2+)...10%...
...PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND...60%...
...PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS (> 75 MPH)...30%...
...PROBABILITY OF HAIL...50%...
...PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL (> 3 INCHES)...5%...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL USA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ALERTS.

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